Rayo Vallecano vs Santander — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rayo Vallecano
43%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Santander
29%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rayo Vallecano win 43.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rayo Vallecano win. Expected goals 1.45–1.14 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (8.8%). It finished 3–2.
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Rayo Vallecano
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | H | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
Santander
| 16 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rayo Vallecano (Home · 5 matches) | Santander (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Rayo Vallecano's home record; away stats use Santander's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.