Celta Vigo vs Santander — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celta Vigo
54%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Santander
23%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Celta Vigo win 53.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Celta Vigo win. Expected goals 1.90–1.17 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.8%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.4%). It finished 5–0.
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Celta Vigo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Osasuna | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Athletic Club | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Santander
| 16 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo (Home · 6 matches) | Santander (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo's home record; away stats use Santander's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.