Celta Vigo vs Malaga — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celta Vigo
57%
top pick
Draw
25%
result
Malaga
18%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Celta Vigo win. Expected goals 1.71–0.96 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.4%), 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (11.7%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Celta Vigo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Osasuna | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Athletic Club | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Malaga
| 19 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo (Home · 6 matches) | Malaga (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo's home record; away stats use Malaga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.