Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Celta Vigo
35%
top pick
Draw
30%
Athletic Club
35%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Athletic Club win 35.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Celta Vigo win. Expected goals 1.34–1.26 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.8%). It finished 0–2.
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Celta Vigo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Osasuna | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Athletic Club | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Athletic Club
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sevilla | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo (Home · 4 matches) | Athletic Club (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo's home record; away stats use Athletic Club's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.