🇪🇸 La Liga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 2.43 | 2.43 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.32 |
| Athletic Club | 3.12 | 3.12 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketCelta Vigo
40%
Draw
29%
Athletic Club
31%
Celta Vigo 1.44 xGexpected goals1.18 xG Athletic Club
Celta Vigo win 40% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.9%).
Celta Vigo score at least twice in 42%; Athletic Club in 33%.
1–1 13.9%0–0 8.6%1–0 8.5%0–1 8.2%1–2 8.0%2–1 7.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 13.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Celta Vigo goals · columns = Athletic Club goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Celta Vigo clean sheet30%
Athletic Club clean sheet24%
Celta Vigo score 2+42%
Athletic Club score 2+33%
Celta Vigo score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Celta Vigo | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 29% | 31% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Celta Vigo
| 17 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
Athletic Club
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sevilla | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Valencia | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | Ath BilbaovsCelta | 1 – 1 |
| 14 Dec 25 | CeltavsAth Bilbao | 2 – 0 |
Celta Vigo: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Celta Vigo (Home) | Athletic Club (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 63.2% | 52.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Clean sheet | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.05 |
Home stats use Celta Vigo's home record; away stats use Athletic Club's away record this season.