Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Athletic Club
32%
result
Draw
28%
Atletico Madrid
40%
top pick
Final score
3–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Athletic Club win 31.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atletico Madrid win. Expected goals 1.24–1.39 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 0–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (9.1%). It finished 3–0.
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Athletic Club
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sevilla | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Athletic Club (Home · 6 matches) | Atletico Madrid (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Athletic Club's home record; away stats use Atletico Madrid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.