Group stage·18 June

The model's read

Home
15%
Draw
22%
Away
63%
UzbekistanExpected goalsColombia
0.73 xG1.90 xG
Uzbekistan Elo
1594
Colombia Elo
1791
Over 2.5
48%
BTTS
42%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home15.0%6.689.1810.5%+4.5
Draw21.9%4.584.7420.3%+1.5
Away63.2%1.581.3969.2%-6.0
Over 2.547.7%2.101.9749.4%-1.6
Under 2.552.3%1.911.9250.6%+1.6

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Colombia (63%).

Match preview

Colombia enter as clear favourites against Uzbekistan, with the model viewing them as the comfortably stronger outfit in this group-stage tie. The South Americans' superiority in underlying strength suggests they should control much of the match's flow and create the more dangerous opportunities. Uzbekistan will need to be compact and disciplined defensively to frustrate a side built to dominate possession and build attacks methodically. The gap in quality points to Colombia dictating terms, though any lapse in concentration could give the Central Asian side openings on the counter.

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