Group stage·26 June

The model's read

Home
55%
Draw
22%
Away
23%
TürkiyeExpected goalsUSA
1.89 xG1.05 xG
Türkiye Elo
1738
USA Elo
1600
Over 2.5
54%
BTTS
50%

Model vs market

Market odds aren't available for this fixture yet — they publish closer to kickoff.

Model favours Türkiye (55%).

Match preview

Türkiye arrive as clear favourites against the USA in this group-stage encounter. The model's strength ratings position them as the clearly superior side, and that advantage translates into a meaningful lean in their favour for the match outcome. The disparity in underlying quality suggests Türkiye should dictate play and create more dangerous opportunities.

The USA will need to be organised and efficient to trouble a team with Türkiye's calibre. History shows that sides significantly outmatched in underlying strength struggle to generate the control and chance creation needed to compete. Türkiye's superior positioning in the model's ratings indicates they should control the tempo and shift the balance of the match in their direction.

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