Group stage·24 June

The model's read

Home
46%
Draw
24%
Away
30%
SwitzerlandExpected goalsCanada
1.67 xG1.19 xG
Switzerland Elo
1723
Canada Elo
1646
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
44%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home46.0%2.182.0745.3%+0.7
Draw23.8%4.203.3627.9%-4.1
Away30.2%3.313.5026.8%+3.4

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model leans Switzerland.

Match preview

Switzerland enter as clear favourites against Canada in this group-stage encounter. The model's strength ratings establish a meaningful gap between the two sides, with Switzerland the more accomplished outfit across the data. Canada will need a disciplined, compact approach to limit the space available to their opponents and manufacture opportunities on the counter. Switzerland's technical superiority should allow them to control proceedings, though Canada's physicality and organisation could frustrate and create pockets of resistance. The model leans toward Switzerland, reflecting their standing as the stronger team in this matchup.

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