Group stage·18 June

The model's read

Home
64%
Draw
21%
Away
15%
SwitzerlandExpected goalsBosnia & Herzegovina
1.96 xG0.75 xG
Switzerland Elo
1723
Bosnia & Herzegovina Elo
1502
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
43%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home64.0%1.561.5759.4%+4.6
Draw21.3%4.704.0023.3%-2.0
Away14.8%6.775.3817.3%-2.6

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Switzerland (64%).

Match preview

Switzerland enter as clear favourites against Bosnia & Herzegovina, with the model's strength ratings placing them comfortably ahead. The Swiss possess a decisive edge across the underlying metrics, suggesting they should control large portions of play and create the better chances. Bosnia & Herzegovina will need to be compact and disciplined to frustrate a technically superior opponent, but the data points to Switzerland having the tools to break down a defensive approach. The gap in overall quality favours a dominant Swiss performance, though Bosnia & Herzegovina's resilience could keep the match competitive in stretches. How Switzerland manages the game's tempo and converts their expected superiority into decisive action will likely determine the margin.

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