Group stage·26 June

The model's read

Home
67%
Draw
20%
Away
12%
SenegalExpected goalsIraq
2.04 xG0.65 xG
Senegal Elo
1785
Iraq Elo
1519
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
39%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home67.5%1.481.3668.3%-0.8
Draw20.3%4.934.6619.9%+0.4
Away12.3%8.167.8911.8%+0.5
Over 2.548.9%2.051.8551.1%-2.2
Under 2.551.1%1.961.9348.9%+2.2

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Senegal (67%).

Match preview

Senegal arrive as clear favourites against Iraq, with the model's strength ratings positioning them as a comfortably superior outfit. The West African side's technical quality and experience at this level should give them control of the match, allowing them to dictate tempo and territory throughout. Iraq will need to be organised defensively and clinical on the counter to stay competitive, but the gap in overall capability suggests Senegal should manage the tie with relative comfort if they perform to standard.

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