Group stage·19 June

The model's read

Home
33%
Draw
25%
Away
42%
ScotlandExpected goalsMorocco
1.23 xG1.49 xG
Scotland Elo
1642
Morocco Elo
1675
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
42%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home33.1%3.024.0523.1%+10.0
Draw24.9%4.013.1829.4%-4.5
Away42.0%2.381.9747.5%-5.5

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model leans Morocco.

Match preview

Morocco enter as slight favourites in this group-stage clash, with the model's strength ratings placing them modestly ahead of Scotland. The North African side's edge appears grounded in overall quality rather than dominance, suggesting a competitive encounter where both teams will fancy their chances.

Scotland will need to be tactically sharp to exploit any openings, but the data indicates they face a slight uphill task against an opponent with a marginal but meaningful advantage. This looks like a match where fine margins could prove decisive, with Morocco's modest superiority giving them the edge without guaranteeing control.

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