Group stage·13 June

The model's read

Home
11%
Draw
20%
Away
69%
QatarExpected goalsSwitzerland
0.55 xG2.52 xG
Qatar Elo
1372
Switzerland Elo
1723
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
31%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home11.1%9.0214.176.8%+4.3
Draw20.3%4.926.7614.2%+6.1
Away68.6%1.461.2279.0%-10.4

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Switzerland (69%).

Match preview

Switzerland enter this fixture as clear favourites, holding a comfortable advantage in the model's strength ratings. The data points to a side capable of controlling possession and dictating terms against a Qatar outfit that figures as the weaker proposition in this pairing. Given the gap in underlying quality, Switzerland should be expected to dominate large stretches and create the better chances, though Qatar's defensive organization may keep the match competitive in phases. The model sees this as Switzerland's to lose, with the Swiss superior in most key facets.

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