Group stage·23 June

The model's read

Home
23%
Draw
23%
Away
54%
PanamaExpected goalsCroatia
0.99 xG1.79 xG
Panama Elo
1603
Croatia Elo
1738
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
48%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home22.7%4.416.2914.8%+7.9
Draw23.1%4.333.6825.3%-2.2
Away54.2%1.841.5560.0%-5.8

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Croatia (54%).

Match preview

Croatia enter as clear favourites against Panama, with the model's strength ratings reflecting a substantial gap between the two sides. The data points to a comfortable advantage for the 2018 finalists, who should control possession and tempo throughout this group-stage encounter.

Panama face a stern test against superior opposition. While they'll aim to stay organised defensively and exploit rare opportunities on the counter, Croatia's technical quality and experience should prove decisive. The model sees this as a mismatch in the teams' overall capabilities, favouring the European side to dictate proceedings.

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