Group stage·24 June

The model's read

Home
62%
Draw
22%
Away
16%
MoroccoExpected goalsHaiti
1.90 xG0.80 xG
Morocco Elo
1675
Haiti Elo
1467
Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
44%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home61.6%1.621.3469.3%-7.7
Draw21.9%4.564.8319.2%+2.7
Away16.5%6.068.0511.5%+5.0

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Morocco (62%).

Match preview

Morocco enter as clear favourites against Haiti, with the model's strength ratings pointing to a comfortable gulf between the two sides. The North Africans' superior fundamentals across the board suggest they should control possession and create the more dangerous attacking opportunities. Haiti will need to be well-organised defensively and look to exploit any rare openings on the counter, but the data indicates Morocco's attacking quality should prove decisive over the course of ninety minutes. The pattern here favours the more established footballing nation operating at a higher level.

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