Group stage·28 June

The model's read

Home
10%
Draw
18%
Away
72%
JordanExpected goalsArgentina
0.58 xG2.43 xG
Jordan Elo
1565
Argentina Elo
1890
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
36%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home10.0%10.0413.386.9%+3.0
Draw18.0%5.567.1613.0%+5.0
Away72.1%1.391.1680.1%-8.0

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Argentina (72%).

Match preview

Argentina enter as clear favourites against Jordan, with the model's strength ratings placing them comfortably ahead of their opponents. The gap between the two sides suggests Argentina should control possession and territory throughout, allowing them to dictate the tempo and shape of play. Jordan will likely be forced into a reactive approach, defending deep and looking for opportunities on the counter-attack. Argentina's technical superiority and midfield dominance should be evident, though Jordan may offer occasional resistance if they remain compact and disciplined defensively. The model's lean towards Argentina reflects their significant advantage in overall team quality.

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