The model's read
Model vs market
How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.
| Model | Fair odds | Pinnacle | Market | Model − mkt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 23.1% | 4.33 | 6.20 | 15.0% | +8.1 |
| Draw | 24.0% | 4.16 | 4.17 | 22.3% | +1.7 |
| Away | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.48 | 62.7% | -9.9 |
| Over 2.5 | 47.6% | 2.10 | 1.88 | 50.3% | -2.7 |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | 1.90 | 49.7% | +2.7 |
Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.
Model favours Algeria (53%).
Match preview
Algeria enter as clear favourites against a Jordan side that sits well below them in the model's strength hierarchy. The gap between the two teams is substantial, and the data points to Algeria controlling the shape and tempo of play. Jordan will likely need to be organised and compact defensively, looking to frustrate their opponents and capitalise on transitions where possible.
The model's read suggests Algeria should have the upper hand throughout, though matches in this competition remain unpredictable. How effectively Jordan can compress space and whether Algeria can break down a disciplined defensive structure will be key threads to watch as the tie unfolds.
The model's read on every match, free. Get it in your inbox.