The model's read
Model vs market
How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.
| Model | Fair odds | Pinnacle | Market | Model − mkt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 27.5% | 3.64 | 3.73 | 25.9% | +1.5 |
| Draw | 23.6% | 4.24 | 2.83 | 34.2% | -10.6 |
| Away | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.43 | 39.8% | +9.1 |
Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.
Model leans Ecuador.
Match preview
Ecuador enter this fixture as slight favourites against an Ivory Coast side they are clearly superior to on the model's strength ratings. The data suggests Ecuador should control much of the match and impose their game, with Ivory Coast likely to operate as the more reactive outfit. How effectively the Ivorians can disrupt Ecuador's rhythm and capitalise on limited opportunities will be crucial to their chances; Ecuador's advantage in overall quality should translate to them dictating the terms of engagement.
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