Group stage·20 June

The model's read

Home
51%
Draw
23%
Away
26%
GermanyExpected goalsIvory Coast
1.83 xG1.14 xG
Germany Elo
1754
Ivory Coast Elo
1653
Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
49%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home51.0%1.961.5261.2%-10.2
Draw22.6%4.434.3121.6%+1.0
Away26.4%3.795.4117.2%+9.2

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Germany (51%).

Match preview

Germany enter as clear favourites against Ivory Coast, with the model's strength ratings positioning them as the notably superior side in this group-stage encounter. The gap in overall quality should shape how this tie unfolds, giving Germany control of possession and the initiative throughout.

However, Ivory Coast will look to remain compact and exploit Germany's potential vulnerabilities on the transition. The model only leans slightly towards Germany despite the strength differential, suggesting the Ivorians have enough tactical discipline and individual quality to make this competitive and create problems on the counter-attack.

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