Group stage·24 June

The model's read

Home
70%
Draw
19%
Away
11%
ColombiaExpected goalsCongo DR
2.22 xG0.63 xG
Colombia Elo
1791
Congo DR Elo
1504
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
39%

Model vs market

Market odds aren't available for this fixture yet — they publish closer to kickoff.

Model favours Colombia (70%).

Match preview

Colombia enter as clear favourites in this World Cup group-stage encounter, with the model's strength ratings positioning them as a comfortably superior side. The data points to a significant gap in calibre between the two teams, which should shape how this tie unfolds. Congo DR will need to be exceptionally well-organised and clinical on the break if they are to trouble a Colombian side expected to dominate possession and territory.

The model's lean strongly favours the South American outfit, reflecting both their superior squad depth and the gulf in recent competitive form. Congo DR's task will be a familiar one for underdogs at this level: stay compact, limit space, and hope for opportunities on transition. Colombia's advantage in nearly every measurable dimension makes them heavy favourites to control proceedings.

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