Group stage·24 June

The model's read

Home
53%
Draw
24%
Away
22%
Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goalsQatar
1.67 xG0.92 xG
Bosnia & Herzegovina Elo
1502
Qatar Elo
1372
Over 2.5
46%
BTTS
44%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home53.3%1.881.6157.9%-4.6
Draw24.4%4.103.6325.7%-1.3
Away22.4%4.475.6516.5%+5.9

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Model favours Bosnia & Herzegovina (53%).

Match preview

Bosnia & Herzegovina enter as clear favourites against Qatar, with the model's strength ratings pointing decisively in their favour. The data suggests a substantial gap between the two sides, one that should translate into Bosnia controlling the tempo and shape of play throughout the match. Qatar will need to be organised and disciplined to frustrate a better-resourced opponent.

The model leans heavily toward Bosnia capitalising on their superiority. How decisively they do so will likely depend on their ability to break down a potentially compact Qatari defence, and whether Qatar can create any moments of transition to trouble a side that will be intent on dominating possession and territory.

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