Group stage·14 June

The model's read

Home
24%
Draw
23%
Away
54%
AustraliaExpected goalsTürkiye
1.03 xG1.86 xG
Australia Elo
1638
Türkiye Elo
1738
Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
46%

Model vs market

Market odds aren't available for this fixture yet — they publish closer to kickoff.

Model favours Türkiye (54%).

Match preview

Türkiye enter this fixture as clear favourites, with the model's strength ratings revealing a meaningful gap between the two sides. The data points to Türkiye as the substantially stronger outfit, which should shape how this match unfolds tactically and competitively. Australia will need to be disciplined and organised to contain a team that the model judges to be notably superior in overall quality.

The model's assessment suggests Türkiye should control large periods of play. How Australia responds—whether they sit deep and look to exploit transitions, or attempt to match their opponents' intensity—will be crucial to determining the match's character. Türkiye's clear advantage on the model's metrics makes them the side expected to dictate terms throughout.

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