Group stage·28 June

The model's read

Home
39%
Draw
25%
Away
36%
AlgeriaExpected goalsAustria
1.40 xG1.33 xG
Algeria Elo
1690
Austria Elo
1677
Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
43%

Model vs market

How the model's probabilities line up against the bookmaker's.

ModelFair oddsPinnacleMarketModel − mkt
Home38.7%2.583.7425.1%+13.7
Draw24.9%4.023.0330.9%-6.0
Away36.4%2.752.1344.0%-7.6

Market probabilities are Pinnacle prices with the bookmaker margin removed. BTTS is model-only — no market shown.

Too close to call — within a goal either way.

Match preview

Algeria and Austria enter this group-stage clash with little to separate them on the model's strength ratings. The two sides sit at a near-identical level, suggesting a competitive encounter where neither enjoys a clear advantage. This parity means the match is likely to be decided by relatively fine margins—execution in key moments, individual quality in attacking transitions, and defensive discipline will probably prove decisive. Given how evenly the model assesses these teams, expect a tightly contested affair where tactical approach and in-game adjustment may be the differentiators.

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