Vaduz vs Thun — Swiss Super League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vaduz
41%
Draw
22%
Thun
37%
Expected goals
1.74–1.79
Vaduz · Thun
Vaduz win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.6%), 1–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vaduz score at least twice in 53%; Thun in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Thun goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Vaduz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 23% | 47% |
| Market reference | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 22% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaduz | 2.39 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.36 | 2.37 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.36 | 2.30 | 2.40 Betfair SB |
| Draw | 4.37 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 3.63 | 4.37 Pinnacle |
| Thun | 2.59 | 2.55 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.51 | 2.38 | 2.59 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vaduz
| 26 Jul | A | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 5–2 | W |
Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vaduz (Home · 4 matches) | Thun (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.75 | 5.00 |
Home stats use Vaduz's home record; away stats use Thun's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.