Vaduz vs Thun — Swiss Super League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vaduz
43%
top pick
Draw
21%
Thun
35%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Thun win 35.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vaduz win. Expected goals 1.77–1.73 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.2%), 1–1 (9.0%), 1–2 (6.7%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
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Vaduz
| 26 Jul | A | vs Lugano | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs St. Gallen | 2–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sion | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Young Boys | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Grasshoppers | 5–2 | W |
Thun
| 25 Jul | A | vs Luzern | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Young Boys | 0–6 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Basel | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gallen | 4–3 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Lausanne | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vaduz (Home · 5 matches) | Thun (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 5.71 |
Home stats use Vaduz's home record; away stats use Thun's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.