Goztepe vs Basaksehir — Süper Lig forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Goztepe
47%
Draw
25%
Basaksehir
28%
Expected goals
1.65–1.21
Goztepe · Basaksehir
Goztepe win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Goztepe win is 2–1 (9.5%).
Goztepe score at least twice in 49%; Basaksehir in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Basaksehir goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Goztepe goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Goztepe | 2.04 |
| Draw | 3.75 |
| Basaksehir | 3.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Goztepe
| 17 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Gaziantep | 2–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Alanyaspor | 2–2 | D |
Basaksehir
| 16 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Trabzonspor | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kasimpasa | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Amedspor | 0–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Goztepe (Home · 4 matches) | Basaksehir (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Goztepe's home record; away stats use Basaksehir's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.