Verona vs Vicenza — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hellas Verona
51%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Vicenza
23%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hellas Verona win 51.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hellas Verona win. Expected goals 1.67–1.01 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.5%). It finished 2–1.
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Verona
| 23 Aug | H | vs Ascoli | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Padova | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Benevento | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–1 | W |
Vicenza
| 21 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Verona | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Verona (Home · 6 matches) | Vicenza (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Verona's home record; away stats use Vicenza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.