Verona vs Arezzo — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hellas Verona
51%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Arezzo
19%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hellas Verona win 51.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hellas Verona win. Expected goals 1.50–0.96 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (13.6%), 2–1 (11.4%). It finished 5–0.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Verona
| 23 Aug | H | vs Ascoli | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Padova | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Benevento | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–1 | W |
Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Verona (Home · 6 matches) | Arezzo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Verona's home record; away stats use Arezzo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.