Cremonese vs Benevento — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cremonese
34%
Draw
31%
Benevento
35%
Expected goals
1.25–1.28
Cremonese · Benevento
Benevento win 35% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.8%), 0–0 (9.5%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cremonese score at least twice in 36%; Benevento in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Benevento goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 14.8 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cremonese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 29% | 40% |
| Market reference | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 31% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cremonese | 2.77 |
| Draw | 3.07 |
| Benevento | 2.76 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 28 Oct · 04:29 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Cremonese
| 22 Aug | A | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Padova | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 0–0 | D |
Benevento
| 22 Aug | H | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cremonese (Home · 4 matches) | Benevento (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Cremonese's home record; away stats use Benevento's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.