Benevento vs Verona — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Benevento
32%
result
Draw
31%
Hellas Verona
37%
top pick
Final score
3–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Benevento win 32.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hellas Verona win. Expected goals 1.25–1.28 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 0–1 (9.7%), 0–0 (9.5%). It finished 3–1.
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Benevento
| 22 Aug | H | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Verona
| 23 Aug | H | vs Ascoli | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Padova | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Benevento | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Benevento (Home · 6 matches) | Verona (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Benevento's home record; away stats use Verona's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.