Arezzo vs Benevento — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arezzo
31%
Draw
30%
Benevento
39%
Expected goals
1.20–1.38
Arezzo · Benevento
Benevento win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 0–1 (9.1%), 0–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Arezzo score at least twice in 34%; Benevento in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Benevento goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arezzo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 28% | 40% |
| Market reference | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 30% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Arezzo | 3.05 |
| Draw | 3.19 |
| Benevento | 2.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Benevento
| 22 Aug | H | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arezzo (Home · 3 matches) | Benevento (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 1.00 |
Home stats use Arezzo's home record; away stats use Benevento's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.