Venezia vs Udinese — Serie A forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Venezia
45%
Draw
26%
Udinese
29%
Expected goals
1.62–1.31
Venezia · Udinese
Venezia win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Venezia win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Venezia score at least twice in 49%; Udinese in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Udinese goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Venezia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Venezia | 2.15 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| Udinese | 3.23 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Venezia (Home · 5 matches) | Udinese (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Venezia's home record; away stats use Udinese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.