Venezia vs Lazio — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Venezia
24%
Draw
26%
Lazio
50%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lazio win 49.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lazio win. Expected goals 1.15–1.71 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (9.7%), 0–1 (8.9%). It finished 0–2.
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Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Venezia (Home · 5 matches) | Lazio (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Venezia's home record; away stats use Lazio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.