Venezia vs Inter — Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Venezia
11%
Draw
15%
Inter
73%
Expected goals
0.87–2.85
Venezia · Inter
Inter win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–3 (9.3%), 0–2 (9.1%), 0–4 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Venezia score at least twice in 22%; Inter in 75%.
Scoreline distribution
Inter goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 8.2 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 6.2 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Venezia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 6% | 12% | 82% |
| Market reference | 11% | 15% | 73% |
| Metis Forecast | 11% | 15% | 73% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Inter
| 22 Aug | H | vs Monza | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 5–3 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Venezia (Home · 4 matches) | Inter (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Venezia's home record; away stats use Inter's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.