Venezia vs Fiorentina — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Venezia
31%
Draw
28%
Fiorentina
41%
pick · result
Final score
2–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Fiorentina win 40.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fiorentina win. Expected goals 1.33–1.42 against 2–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–2 (10.2%), 0–1 (9.4%). It finished 2–4.
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Venezia
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lecce | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Fiorentina | 2–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 0–2 | L |
Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Venezia (Home · 5 matches) | Fiorentina (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Venezia's home record; away stats use Fiorentina's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.