Udinese head into this fixture in reasonable nick, taking seven points from their last five at home and sitting comfortably in mid-table. Cremonese arrive in far more desperate circumstances, sitting 18th and having managed just one win in their last five away from home. The pressure of the drop is clearly weighing on them, and their away record this season — conceding 1.6 goals per game on the road — leaves them vulnerable against a side that has found ways to grind out results.

The underlying numbers tell an interesting story. Both sides sit well below the Serie A average for BTTS and goals, with Udinese seeing BTTS in just 39% of home games compared to the league average of 45%. Cremonese have been similarly low-scoring away from home. The one previous meeting ended in a draw, but the table context is very different now.

This looks like a game where Udinese's home advantage and Cremonese's survival anxiety could cancel each other out, but the visitors are too stretched defensively to fancy their chances here.