Udinese vs AS Roma — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Udinese
19%
Draw
23%
AS Roma
58%
Expected goals
1.02–1.88
Udinese · AS Roma
AS Roma win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.7%), 1–2 (10.6%), 0–1 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AS Roma win is 1–2 (10.6%).
Udinese score at least twice in 27%; AS Roma in 57%.
Scoreline distribution
AS Roma goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Udinese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Market reference | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 23% | 58% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Udinese | 4.78 |
| Draw | 4.13 |
| AS Roma | 1.66 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Udinese (Home · 4 matches) | AS Roma (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Udinese's home record; away stats use AS Roma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.