Udinese vs AC Milan — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Udinese
19%
Draw
24%
AC Milan
57%
Expected goals
0.97–1.84
Udinese · AC Milan
AC Milan win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 0–1 (10.3%), 0–2 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely AC Milan win is 0–1 (10.3%).
Udinese score at least twice in 26%; AC Milan in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
AC Milan goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Udinese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market reference | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 24% | 57% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Udinese (Home · 4 matches) | AC Milan (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Udinese's home record; away stats use AC Milan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.