Torino vs Monza — Serie A forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Torino
45%
Draw
28%
Monza
27%
Expected goals
1.53–1.18
Torino · Monza
Torino win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Torino win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Torino score at least twice in 45%; Monza in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Monza goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Torino goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Torino | 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.46 |
| Monza | 3.55 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.46–1.25 → 1.53–1.18
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Torino
| 23 Aug | H | vs AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sassuolo | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 1–1 | D |
Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Torino (Home · 3 matches) | Monza (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Torino's home record; away stats use Monza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.