Parma vs Monza — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Parma
34%
top pick
Draw
32%
result
Monza
34%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 32.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Parma win. Expected goals 1.23–1.31 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (9.7%), 1–0 (9.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Parma (Home · 3 matches) | Monza (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Parma's home record; away stats use Monza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.