Parma head into this one in poor form, winning just one of their last five and sitting comfortably mid-table with little to play for. Their home record tells a cautious story — averaging under a goal per game and keeping clean sheets in less than a fifth of home fixtures, they are not a side that tends to open games up. Roma arrive in steadier shape, alternating wins and losses on the road but carrying a respectable defensive record away from the Olimpico.

The goalscoring data points toward a tight, low-scoring affair. Parma's home matches have produced over 2.5 goals in fewer than a third of games, well below the Serie A average, and Roma's away BTTS and over 2.5 rates also sit below the norm. Both sides profile as relatively cautious when goals are concerned.

The limited head-to-head sample favors Roma, and their superior league position and away scoring average make them look like the value side here. This one looks tighter than a mid-table versus top-half clash might suggest on paper.