Napoli head into this one in uncertain form, picking up just one win from their last five and looking vulnerable at a stage of the season where the title race or European positioning often adds pressure. Udinese, meanwhile, arrive in confident mood with three wins from their last five away from home, and the solitary H2H meeting on record ended in a Napoli defeat — a small but notable data point.

The goal data is where this gets interesting. Both sides sit well above the Serie A average for BTTS and Over 2.5, and Napoli's home matches have produced goals at a healthy rate all season. Udinese have also been involved in open games on the road, conceding regularly while contributing at the other end.

Given Napoli's dip in form and Udinese's travelling confidence, this looks tighter than many will expect. The visitors are undervalued heading into Sunday.