Napoli vs AS Roma — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Napoli
34%
Draw
28%
AS Roma
38%
Expected goals
1.33–1.42
Napoli · AS Roma
AS Roma win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Napoli score at least twice in 39%; AS Roma in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
AS Roma goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Napoli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 27% | 39% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.83 |
| Draw | 3.45 |
| AS Roma | 2.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Napoli (Home · 3 matches) | AS Roma (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Napoli's home record; away stats use AS Roma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.