Monza vs Udinese — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Monza
30%
Draw
31%
Udinese
39%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Udinese win 38.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Udinese win. Expected goals 1.25–1.31 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 0–1 (10.4%), 1–2 (9.9%). It finished 2–3.
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Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Monza (Home · 2 matches) | Udinese (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 6.50 |
Home stats use Monza's home record; away stats use Udinese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.