🇮🇹 Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:30

Monza

16:30

— vs 10th

DWWLL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Monza	3.12	3.12
Draw	3.12	3.12
Udinese	2.59	2.59

Metis Forecast

model + market

Monza

31%

Draw

31%

Udinese

38%

Monza 1.28 xGexpected goals1.28 xG Udinese

Udinese win 38% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 54% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.9%).

Monza score at least twice in 36%; Udinese in 37%.

1–1 14.9%0–1 10.3%1–2 9.8%0–0 9.4%1–0 6.6%0–2 6.1%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	9.4	10.3	6.1	2.1	0.5	0.1
1	6.6	14.9	9.8	3.4	0.9	0.2
2	5.8	6.0	5.7	2.7	0.7	0.2
3	3.1	3.2	1.7	1.1	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Monza goals · columns = Udinese goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score54%

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Over 4.5 goals12%

Monza clean sheet27%

Udinese clean sheet29%

Monza score 2+36%

Udinese score 2+37%

Monza score 3+15%

Model vs market

Source	Monza	Draw	Udinese
Raw Metis model	50%	27%	24%
Market (de-vigged)	31%	31%	38%
Metis Forecast	31%	31%	38%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Udinese

25 Aug	H	vs Hellas Verona	1–1	D
31 Aug	A	vs Inter	2–1	W
14 Sept	A	vs Pisa	1–0	W
20 Sept	H	vs AC Milan	0–3	L
28 Sept	A	vs Sassuolo	1–3	L

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Monza (Home)	Udinese (Away)
BTTS rate	—	52.6%
Over 2.5 rate	—	52.6%
Clean sheet	—	26.3%
Avg goals	—	2.84

Home stats use Monza's home record; away stats use Udinese's away record this season.

Udinese →🇮🇹 Serie A standings & fixtures