Monza vs Sassuolo — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Monza
35%
result
Draw
27%
Sassuolo
38%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Monza win 34.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sassuolo win. Expected goals 1.37–1.45 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.1%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Monza (Home · 4 matches) | Sassuolo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Monza's home record; away stats use Sassuolo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.