Monza vs Napoli — Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Monza
25%
Draw
24%
Napoli
51%
Expected goals
1.11–1.75
Monza · Napoli
Napoli win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–2 (9.2%), 0–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Napoli win is 1–2 (9.2%).
Monza score at least twice in 31%; Napoli in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
Napoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Monza goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market reference | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Monza | 3.79 |
| Draw | 3.85 |
| Napoli | 1.89 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Monza (Home · 3 matches) | Napoli (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Monza's home record; away stats use Napoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.