Lecce vs Monza — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 28.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lecce
35%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Monza
34%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lecce win 35.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lecce win. Expected goals 1.21–1.32 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.8%), 1–0 (10.1%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 3–2.
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Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
Monza
| 22 Aug | A | vs Inter | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Udinese | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Lecce | 2–3 | L |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lecce (Home · 5 matches) | Monza (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Lecce's home record; away stats use Monza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.