Lecce come into this fixture deep in relegation trouble at 17th, and their home form offers little comfort — just one win in their last five at home, with an average of only 0.7 goals scored per game. That attacking output is well below the Serie A norm, and their BTTS rate of 39% sits notably under the league average of 45%, pointing to a side that tends to keep things tight but struggle to contribute at the other end.

Genoa arrive in better shape, sitting 14th and carrying momentum from back-to-back away wins. Their away BTTS rate of 61% is significantly above the league average, and they average 1.1 goals per game on the road, suggesting they travel with genuine attacking intent.

The lone previous meeting ended level, but Genoa's superior form and road confidence make this look more competitive than a home-away matchup might suggest. The visitors appear undervalued here, and a low-scoring, tense affair feels likely given Lecce's defensive-first tendencies.