🇮🇹 Serie A·Monday, 31 August 2026·16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 7.69 | 7.69 |
| Draw | 4.36 | 4.36 |
| AS Roma | 1.47 | 1.47 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLecce
12%
Draw
22%
AS Roma
66%
Lecce 0.79 xGexpected goals1.78 xG AS Roma
AS Roma win 66% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (16.2%).
Lecce score at least twice in 18%; AS Roma in 55%.
0–1 16.2%1–2 13.2%0–2 12.7%1–1 10.4%0–0 7.2%1–3 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 16.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Lecce goals · columns = AS Roma goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Lecce clean sheet14%
AS Roma clean sheet45%
Lecce score 2+18%
AS Roma score 2+55%
Lecce score 3+5%
Model vs market
| Source | Lecce | Draw | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 28% | 45% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 12% | 22% | 66% |
| Metis Forecast | 12% | 22% | 66% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs AC Milan | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Atalanta | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
AS Roma
| 23 Aug | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Torino | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Hellas Verona | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 26 | RomavsLecce | 1 – 0 |
| 6 Jan 26 | LeccevsRoma | 0 – 2 |
Lecce: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Lecce (Home) | AS Roma (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 36.8% | 42.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.1% | 42.1% |
| Clean sheet | 26.3% | 36.8% |
| Avg goals | 1.95 | 2.47 |
Home stats use Lecce's home record; away stats use AS Roma's away record this season.