Lecce vs AS Roma — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lecce
12%
Draw
22%
AS Roma
66%
pick · result
Final score
0–4
Top pick landed
Metis gave an AS Roma win 66.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AS Roma win. Expected goals 0.82–1.80 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–1 (15.8%), 1–2 (13.7%), 0–2 (12.4%). It finished 0–4.
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Lecce
| 23 Aug | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 0–3 | L |
AS Roma
| 24 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lecce (Home · 2 matches) | AS Roma (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Lecce's home record; away stats use AS Roma's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.