Lazio head into this final-day fixture with inconsistent form, winning two of their last five but also dropping points in matches they should have controlled. Sitting ninth, there is little left to play for domestically, which raises legitimate questions about their intensity and motivation. Pisa arrive in desperate shape, having lost all five of their last away matches and sitting bottom of the table, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game on the road this season — well above the league average.

Despite the gulf in quality and form, the one previous meeting between these sides ended level, and Lazio's home BTTS rate of just 39% sits notably below the league average of 45%, suggesting they are capable of shutting games down. Pisa, however, have kept clean sheets in just 6% of away games, pointing to a Lazio goal feeling inevitable.

The data suggests Lazio should win this comfortably, though a flat home performance cannot be entirely ruled out given the low-stakes context.