Lazio head into this one in decent enough shape, with four wins from their last five at home, but they face a formidable Inter side who arrive as Serie A leaders and have won three of their last five on the road. The one previous meeting this season ended in a defeat for Lazio, and Inter's away record suggests they are well-equipped to replicate that result.

The underlying numbers point firmly toward a low-scoring, tight affair. Both sides sit well below the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals in the relevant home and away splits, and Inter's away clean sheet record is particularly impressive. Lazio's home attack has been modest at best, averaging 1.4 goals per game, while Inter have conceded less than a goal per away game on average.

Inter look like the value side here. The data suggests this could be tighter than a nine-place gap might imply, but the visitors' defensive solidity and title-winning momentum gives them a clear edge.