Lazio vs AC Milan — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lazio
25%
Draw
30%
result
AC Milan
45%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an AC Milan win. Expected goals 1.04–1.46 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 0–1 (10.9%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 2–2.
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Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
AC Milan
| 23 Aug | A | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juventus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lazio | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lazio (Home · 5 matches) | AC Milan (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Lazio's home record; away stats use AC Milan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.